Bayes Formula

Core Concepts

• Sensitivity: True Positives / Predicted Positives
• Specificity: False Negatives / Predicted Negatives
• Bayes Factor:
  • Formula: Sensitivity / False Positive Rate
  • Also known as: Likelihood Ratio
• Odds:
  • Express the prior with odds
  • Compute Bayes factor
  • Multiply to update
• Prior and Posterior: The relationship between initial beliefs and updated probabilities.
• Intuition: The process of reprogramming intuition by updating probabilities based on new evidence.